It’s still all about market sentiment and the headlines as we get stuck into the new day. The general line of thinking is that the longer we don’t get any negative news or more banking troubles, the better it will be for markets and risk trades.
That said, the prospect of the Fed looms large and regardless of the interest rate decision, markets will look towards Powell’s press conference to try and provide something to ease all the fear and panic in the past two weeks.
I reckon with a better sense of calm, markets might find it easier to navigate the trading day ahead. There isn’t anything major on the agenda in Europe so the big picture focus will stay as it is.
But as mentioned countless times, the prevailing mood is balanced on a knife’s edge still. For now, there aren’t any major hints – not even from Timiraos – on the Fed decision but with over 70% of a 25 bps rate hike priced in, it seems markets can digest that tomorrow.
Or at least that is how it looks on paper but we shall see I guess. There is going to be more to it than just the rate decision alone, with the dot plots and Powell’s language arguably two things that will be just as important.
0700 GMT – Switzerland February trade balance data
1000 GMT – Eurozone January construction output
1000 GMT – Germany March ZEW survey current conditions, expectations/outlook
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.